BinhDang
In-depth analysis of the behavior and distribution of BTCs held over 2 - 3 years.
Historically, investors who hold BTCs for 2 - 3 years often reap the most significant returns over a 4-year cycle. Ignoring the excitement or accompanying risks while waiting for the final decisions from the upcoming SEC, in this analysis, I want to focus more deeply on the possibility of high-level distribution moves of this cohort. First, we need to answer why this group plays a vital role at the current stage. 1/ Looking at the Realized Cap-UTXO Age Bands (%), this cohort is 1/3 of the total realized capitalization percentage of all age groups combined, including both short-term and long-term, equivalent to 32.29%. (chart 1) When compared to history, the percentage of real capitalization value of this group is the highest in history, which proves that more investors are holding for the long term in this period. (chart 2) 2/ When Bitcoin reached its local peak in June 2019, the Realized Price of this cohort recorded a very high profit level; the market price at that time was $11,955, and the realized price of the 2-3-year holding group was $1,228. Meanwhile, now the market price is still touching the resistance zone of this cohort's realized price. (chart 3) 3/ That proves that long-term investors who bought BTCs between January 2021 and now are still only near the break-even point. This can be calculated using the NUPL data for this cohort alone (chart 4). The blue part shows the loss for the coins in this age group, and it is now just approaching the zero boundary, contrary to the recovery peaking locally in 2019 when this cohort still recorded extremely high levels of profit. (red line on chart 4) Based on comparative data, ignoring the excitement and anxiety caused by the upcoming ETF decision and the positive macro situation, I do not see a risk when the group with the largest percentage of realized capitalization will quickly distribute and put pressure on the market price.