Tomáš Hančar
3-month aSOPR bear divergence update: It's very likely closer to having played out - the larger range sweep (almost?) done
I've been tracking this development for a little over 6 weeks now and apparently, we're closer to being done (pic 1, the aSOPR div itself), which I see as the perfect opportunity forming, one I've described in my SSR QuickTake from Jul 17th (short term expectation to sweep the entire 25k - 30k range) NUL, contrary to my original expectations from 22nd June are right around levels where they were back then (pic 2, the NUL TA structure) - naturally, since Bitcoin didn't break out to the upside, but took the PA range to the downside - I view this as a perfect opportunity presenting itself The SSR RSI (IT Tech taught me this one - credit where due, pic 3) has hit levels not seen since last year's june, exceeding both FTX dump's as well as this year's march's banking crisis extremes - this to me is yet another confirmation that the time to load up the proverbial leverage truck is likely closer than you may think. Finally, PA (as well as various analysts correctly point out - the OI & leverage developments of late last week) suggest yet another factor of confluence with regards to turning bullish ALSO in the shorter term, apart from the cyclical bullish view - purely PA speaking - chances are the last week's lows are swept either now still in august or in september, then a reversal should be in order (unless, of course, the current local lows are in already, let's not forget that Gary's hammer made the market that much more illiquid). 3-month aSOPR bear div quick sum: 13th jul 2023 - spotted 24th jul 2023 - playing out today: much closer to done (SSR RSI, NUL, PA) The last update on this metric from my end: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/64beb0a38f218e1612b86acf-3-month-aSOPR-bear-divergence-update-Its-playing-out P.S.: Interesting note: AntPool's activity I've outlined in my last QuickTake ceased, HOWEVER, miners overall haven't stopped increasing their reserves and also exchange depositing transactions new lows not seen since mid-feb '17...