Crazzyblockk
How critical is the current market situation?
Now let's challenge the current market conditions, considering the previous price cycles of Bitcoin, based on the realized price of short-term and long-term holders. In the above image, the current cycle has compared based on the realized price of bitcoins held for 1-6 months and bitcoins held for a maximum period of 1 year in the 2019 cycle and the current cycle, and the maximum pressure or short-term loss is also estimated. In 2019-2020, by involving the proliferation of the Coronavirus, the market was in severe shock, and the maximum loss imposed on short-term holders of 1-6 months was about 40-45%. (now between 4-9% loss) If we look for a valid standard measure to compare the current situation with the past, the common point would be the status of the holders of Bitcoin for 6-12 months. This band will give us two comprehensive views in a one-year review of the Bitcoin market: 1- What is the ratio of the realized value price of each bitcoin held for a maximum of one year to the market price? Is it in profit or loss? 2- In this price cycle, how much bitcoin has reached a maximum age of 1 year, or in a simple concept, has the price performance of bitcoin forced many investors to take a long-term view? For the current market conditions, it is necessary that even in the face of a further drop in the price of Bitcoin, This realized value should increase, which will indicate a double interest in holding Bitcoins besides short-term losses for longer terms. This average price, which is now flat, should take an upward slope for the coming months so that the dominance of bitcoins held in the one year leads to support for maintaining the long-term bullish performance of bitcoin. If this definition doesn't happen in the future?? Say hello to a Big price slump.