MAC_D
The possibility that major institutional investors have completed their BTC accumulation
On June 15, 2023, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, announced the filing of a Spot BTC ETF. This announcement was a major shock to the crypto market, as it was contrary to BlackRock's previous statements. It is possible that traditional financial institutions and major institutions had already completed their accumulation of BTC during the two crashes in 2022 (LUNA and FTX) and concentrated on releasing positive news in the middle of this year. This is because: First, Not occured Big Deal OTC This Year BTC Token Transferred shows inter-whale transactions, During the past three halving, large amounts of OTC transactions have occurred at the bottom. However, despite Bitcoin rising 100% from its lows this year, there is no sign of a large number of over-the-counter transactions. This may be because institutional investors have already completed their BTC accumulation, eliminating the need for additional trades. You can see that the volume of huge transactions occurred when two crashes occurred last year (LUNA, FTX Crisis). In particular, on June 15, 17.68 million BTCs were transmitted, the fifth-largest volume in history. It is likely that institutional investors accumulated BTCs in large quantities at low prices on this day. Second, Changes in BTC Velocity pattern If you look at historical BTC Velocity patterns, you can see Velocity speeding up, usually with a large amount of BTC being traded a year ago. However, in this cycle, there was no need to trade because institutional investors had already completed their accumulation at the end of last year, and it seems that a large increase was possible even with a small amount of trading due to lack of liquidity. In conclusion, $15.7K, the low created after institutions mass-bought, seems to be the lowest point in this cycle, and if 'Token Transferred' and 'Velocity speed' increase along with price increases in the future, this is likely a precursor to an upward rally.