Tomáš Hančar
Bitcoin SSR - 3 most likely scenarios going forward + is the halving "priced in" / if so by how much.
Three main scenarios for the Bitcoin price going forward (tightening Bollinger bands & surpressed volatility suggest a larger move coming in the next few weeks to months) - the evaluation of "set ups" = assuming one of the expected scenarios play out: 1. SSR to lower channel band x PA sideways or slightly lower (e.g. not breaching 25k significantly to the downside) = a very bullish set up once the move down is done (short term I am expecting the current range to potentially be cleared to the downside as per my last QuickTake with regards to the 3-month aSOPR bear div) 2. SSR to lower channel band x PA all the way back to Realized price or potentially lower (e.g. breaching 25k significantly to the downside) = an EXTREMELY bullish set up 3. SSR to higher channel band x PA exceeding the 32 384 liquidity area with strength = probably a good break out, but without a FIAT world black swan/meltdown (bonds imploding badly for instance), the subsequent top (my best "guesstimate" would be the '22 YO around 46 200-ish as a potential target) may actually present a good tactical intra-cycle short opportunity. In terms of Risk:Reward, the bullish break out into the 40's offers the best potential "R", however, as per my last QuickTake, it MAY be a good idea to wait & see whether an opportunity to get in our mid-longer term leveraged plays in lower parts of the current range doesn't by any chance present itself, first... The purple box is there to make one think about whether halving is priced in or not and if so by how much (similarity with pre-2020 halving) in terms of SSR - halving still ~270 or so days ahead, yet the SSR looks similar to around may 2020. Certainly something to think about.