Tomáš Hančar

UTxO AB RP from cyclical perspective point towards potential re-accumulation stage for next few months - 35k will be a key level

Two brief comments on the UTxO age bands realized price since 0nchained did his marvellous deep dive into the current state of these metrics earlier on today. I'll be looking more on a longer term perspective here and I'll use a more of a technical approach as I usually do, after all - I may have been way too excited about my discovery of Puell Multiple being manipulated via ordinals spam (that was the case, actually), however I'm still adamant about Sell in May not being the right narrative this year. I was expecting a break out above 30k even before we sweeped through the 30k - 25k range, but that didn't materialize and currently it looks like some big power players are in a re-accumulation mood. If you have a look at the 18m-2y UTxO age band's realized price crossing below the 2y-3y UTxO age band's realized price after the cyclical bottom, it was a key re-accumulation structure past 2 cycles If you have a look at the 18m-2y UTxO age band's realized price crossing back above the 2y-3y UTxO age band's realized price after the re-accumulation phase it served as a potential "early tp" (as in get the most of the "meat" of the big move) As the Bitcoin's cyclical bottom was already confimed by many other indicators (Realized Price, LTH SOPR structure, MVRV, Puell Multiple, you name your favourite one, but while we're looking at the UTxO age bands Realized prices, I recommend you check the 6m-12m one crossing below the 12m-18m as well as 0nchained's deep dive into that - apart from the ability to read what each cohort has been doing, if you zoom out, you'll see a pattern likely emerging...), we can assume that the re-accumulation phase has either started or is about to commence soon. That does go contrary to my orignally "straight up" = most pain scenario, however I caution against getting too bearish just because the debt ceiling kabuki still ongoing. We are in a bull market and unless, say, Coinbase blows up, I see it choppy or upwards from here...