gigisulivan
New ATH on BTC Hashrate - Bullish or Bearish?
BTC just hit new ATH and many might make you believe this is a bullish sign, but I will show you that it pretty much always had quite the opposite effect. I've been using hashrate all time highs as bearish signals throughout 2022 with very good results. You can see all new ATH's marked on the screenshot and even if you go back to 2021 ATHs on a live chart, you will see that all signalled an imminent sell off. This is the first one in 2023 and I might be proven wrong eventually, but until that time comes this is still one of the strongest indications we are very close to the top of current bullish move. How far can we expect Bitcoin's price to go down? Based on last year's 7 occurrences (there were 2 occurrences where the sell off happened after the second consecutive ATH): - average move down was around 19.5% - minimum move down 12.5% - largest move down 37% - max move up before a sell off was around 11% This means Bitcoin potentially going up to 25.5k before dropping to most likely target of 18.4k with lowest price target at 14.5k and minimum drop to 20.1k One more thing of note could be the gaps between clusters of stronger miner activity and hashrate reaching new ATHs in quick succession, so far it meant the first ATH in a "cluster" was followed by a move down in price, on average, within 9 days. That brings us to Fri next week after FOMC meeting and crucial decision on interest rates and future outlook, so highly anticipated by risk on markets pricing in a soft landing and rates cut in 2023. Based just on data present, we should expect bad news for stock and crypto market, unless this time is different.