gigisulivan
Lowest 14 days average Exchange Inflows since 2015, suggest volatility to increase very soon
During bear market, Bitcoin Exchange Inflows (Total) is one of few metrics I follow daily to see when we could expect another leg down or final capitulation. What I am looking for is 150k+ inflows in a day, that marks forming of the local bottom. If followed by a series of very high inflows as seen when forming 2015 and 2018 bear cycle lows, we can have very good confidence observed, leg down could be the last one. 4 instances of 150k+ inflows this year, early May, June, Sept 14th and Nov 18th. To help me analyze those inflows increases, I look at 14 days SMA, as in the past the final capitulation always had highest peak and lasted longer than previous lower lows. If you look at those 4 spiking periods for inflows, neither fully fits the profile especially if you take further negative risk-on assets macro impact into consideration. Currently we are under 26k (looking at 14 days SMA) daily BTC total inflows, which is the lowest since mid-2015!! I don’t believe this will last much longer