UTXO On-Chain Data Shows Increasing Capitulation

UTXO-On-Chain-Data-Shows-Increasing-Capitulation

When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he built a structure that required a significant amount of work (PoW). The Bitcoin blockchain is transparent, which allows us to examine the active supply and unconfirmed transaction output, called UTXO.

In the market bottom of early 2019, Delphi Digital successfully forecasted the market capitulation, using UTXO data. The current UTXO distribution shows similar characteristics, however the final capitulation might occur after market cap drops below delta cap.

While the retail 1M-3M wave (green) mirrors a positive sentiment, longer timeframes like 3Y-5Y (red) clearly show de-risking. The shorter term traders 3M-6M (orange) are still reeling from heavy losses. However, the institutional level 2Y-3Y (deep blue) shows signs of accumulation.

1M-3M (green): Accumulation

3M-6M (orange): Selling pressure

6M-12M (violet): Moderate accumulation

2Y-3Y (deep blue): Moderate accumulation

3Y-5Y (red): De-risking

7Y-10Y (turquoise): Long-term holding