bulgtrader2022-02-22

Market Sentiment with NUPL: did the cycles play out & signaling that this is just the beginning of the bear market?

NUPL can be used to describe different periods of the BTC cycles, especially it shows the sentiment to identify periods for selling/buying, means taking profit/entering the market. The informative value is higher by applying the halving cylces, technically speaking cycles 2012, 2016 and 2020. Thresholds <0.0 0.0 0.25 0.5 0.75 following categories are applied on this thresholds (same order) Capitulation Hope - Fear Optimisim - Anxiety Belief - Denial Euphoria - Greed Common: ATHs were reached in the subsequent year of the halving. Means ATH = halving year + 1 2012 & 2016: • sentiment increased to "Euphoria" and with that ATHs reached • Price correction with „Capitulation“ This cycle shows up a different behaviour: • ATH with no „Euphoria" • NUPL descreasing & on the way to Capitulation? • till now there was no capitulation phase • Conclusion: Relying on cycle behaviour and the uncertainty in the market&geopolitical tensions, is this just the beginning of the bear market?