Spirit Jonber Kim
What we miss about Exchange Inflows & Reserves
In general, people think that whales are collecting BTC when the Exchange Reserve decreases and accept it as a bull market sign. Also when Exchange Inflow increases, whales come to sell BTC, and if it decreases after then, people would think that the decline has entered a lull. However, compared to the past, such simple predictions are becoming more likely to be erroneous. The yellow line in the first figure is the application of SMA 30days to the BTC Exchange Inflows. The amount of BTC inflows these days is even less than in 2016. However, the current BTC Exchange Reserve is significantly higher than in 2016. A similar amount exists on the exchange as in mid-late 2018. So, the current BTC inflow amount is less than in the past few years, but the Reserve is not that low. Therefore Inflow signals can be sufficiently diluted with whales' action done in the exchanges with existing reserves. We need to be careful to handle inflow signals, esp. free channel signals.