Puell Multiple measures the ratio of the daily USD value of newly issued coins to the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value, capturing whether current miner revenue is significantly elevated or depressed relative to its historical baseline - and by extension, whether the market is in a structurally overheated or undervalued condition from a supply issuance perspective.
When the Puell Multiple is high, miners are receiving daily revenue well above their yearly average - reflecting a combination of elevated price and issuance value that historically coincides with late-cycle market conditions where selling pressure from miners is at its peak. Values above 6 have repeatedly marked major cycle tops, as the profitability gap incentivizes miners to sell aggressively into strength. When the multiple falls below 0.4, miner revenue has compressed to historically low levels relative to the yearly baseline - a condition associated with deep bear markets, miner capitulation, and the kind of forced selling exhaustion that has historically marked generational buying opportunities.
Tracked alongside Miners' Position Index, hashrate, and new supply data, the Puell Multiple provides a miner-economics-grounded valuation signal that complements holder-behavior metrics - offering a supply-side perspective on cycle positioning that has historically been among the most reliable macro indicators for identifying high-probability entry and exit zones across Bitcoin market cycles.
