Bitcoin: Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR)

Chart Description

Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) applies the SOPR framework to all spent outputs that have been held for longer than one hour, filtering out same-hour transactions that are typically associated with technical or automated activity rather than economically meaningful spending decisions. This adjustment produces a cleaner signal of genuine market participant behavior compared to the raw SOPR metric.

When aSOPR is above 1, the average on-chain participant is moving coins at a profit - consistent with bull market conditions or periods of active distribution at elevated prices. When it falls below 1, coins are being spent at a loss on aggregate, which in sustained downtrends often signals capitulation. As with SOPR, the 1 level acts as a key behavioral threshold. In bull markets it tends to hold as support, while in bear markets it acts as resistance that the market struggles to reclaim.

By removing the noise introduced by short-lived outputs - which can distort raw SOPR during periods of high on-chain throughput - aSOPR provides a more reliable baseline for assessing whether the broader market is in a profit-taking or loss-realization regime at any given time.

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