Total Miner Halving Capitulation Index

havling calculation
Current Block
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Blocks until Halving
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Total Miner Outflow(30d)
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BTC USD Price
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Miners Position Index (TMO/MA 365(TMO))
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Total Miner Outflow in USD (TMO)
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Why are Total Miner Outflows important?
Miner Outflow is the number of bitcoins that leave wallets held by the referenced miner. In the Bitcoin ecosystem, one of, if not the most consistent source of sell pressure/supply, is miners. Ever since mining became an industry with overhead costs and expenses, it has generated constant sell pressure on Bitcoin. By looking at miner outflows, we can observe miners behavior and see if they are exerting a lot of downward pressure on price while they struggle to cover costs, or if they are selling less and doing well. Going into the halving, miner outflows will give us a good sense of how miners are responding to the decrease in profits, and if they have properly hedged risk in a way to allow them to stay afloat, or if they will capitulate and push price further downard for a time after the halving.
How we build Miner Outflows data?
Within the coinbase transaction, miners tag blocks mined to indicate they mined the block. Pools that show their blocks are better positioned to bring other miners into their pool through network effects. Through parsing this tag, we can label the mining pool wallets that receive the coinbase reward. We can then cluster the coinbase address and reward address, and label mining pools, as well as unknown miners. We currently have 98% of miners (based on coinbase rewards) covered.
How we use the Total Miner Capitulation Index?
There are periods of time where the outflow of bitcoins being mined and entering the ecosystem is high or low relative to historical norms. This helps investors understand miner behavior and build related strategies. The chart above highlights periods where the value of Bitcoin’s outflow by miners on a daily basis has historically been extremely high. It also shows periods where the daily issuance value was extremely low. These provide insights whether miners will capitulate or hodl their bitcoins before the 3rd halving occur.